Provincial revenues averaged about 6.5% of GDP during 2010-2024, up from under 4%, while federal expenditures did not de
Source
World Bank — https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/07/01/pakistan-strengthening-fiscal-federalism-to-drive-development. Verified in source set / retroactive normalization pending.
What it proves
Devolution without expenditure realignment can create vertical fiscal stress.
How to deploy: Use Provincial revenues averaged about 6.5% of GDP during 2010-2024, up from under 4%, while federal expenditures did not de (Provincial revenues averaged about 6.5% of GDP during 2010-2024, up from under 4%, while federal expenditures did not decline commensurately., 2010-2024) to support the claim that Devolution without expenditure realignment can create vertical fiscal stress.
What it does not prove: "Provincial revenues" here includes federal transfers under the NFC award, so 6.5% of GDP is not a measure of provincial own-source tax effort and does not show that provinces have become better tax collectors. It is also a 15-year average, smoothing over years when the ratio sat well below that line.
Memory hook: 6.5% of GDP → provinces gained revenue; federal spending never made room
Rebuts the claim: "Provinces are fiscally starved under the current arrangement" — provincial revenues rose from under 4% to about 6.5% of GDP; the unresolved half of the problem is federal expenditure that did not shrink.