Tax-to-GDP reform target
Source
Ministry of Finance — https://www.finance.gov.pk/press_releases.html. Verified in source set / retroactive normalization pending.
What it proves
Shows both the low starting point and the policy objective for fiscal-capacity reform.
What it does not prove: The 10.2% base is a narrower federal-style measure: total tax revenue including provincial taxes and the petroleum levy was already 12.3% of GDP in FY2025, so the 13% ambition is a smaller lift than 10.2%→13% implies. A ratio target is also silent on composition — it can be met by squeezing existing filers and levies rather than by taxing agriculture, which was 24.6% of value added at an effective rate near 0.3%.
Memory hook: 10.2% → 11% → 13%: a decade's fiscal ambition stated in two percentage points
Rebuts the claim: "Pakistan's fiscal problem is overspending, not revenue" — a 10.2% ratio the government itself targets raising sits far below the ~15% state-capacity reference, and the gap is concentrated in untaxed sectors, not in outlays.