Structural-reform output effect

What it does not prove: These are modelled level effects on potential output from a full reform package, not a forecast of realised Pakistani growth: 'up to 3.5%' is the ceiling of a cross-country range, and partial or sequenced reform buys proportionately less. A one-off uplift in the level of output is also not a permanent rise in the growth rate, and the estimate carries no timetable, no fiscal cost and no distributional detail.

Memory hook: 3.5% and 6% → modelled reform dividend, not promised growth

Rebuts the claim: 'Institutional and governance reform is administrative housekeeping with no measurable macroeconomic payoff' — the IMF puts a quantified output figure on the reform agenda.