World Bank analysis estimates climate impacts could produce losses up to 9% GDP by 2050, reaching 17% in agriculture und
Source
World Bank — https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099121324161568318/pdf/BOSIB-b41eaf79-84ac-40db-ba1c-85f902892917.pdf. Verified in source set / retroactive normalization pending.
What it proves
Agriculture is disproportionately exposed; keep estimate distinct from broader E465 scenario.
How to deploy: Use World Bank analysis estimates climate impacts could produce losses up to 9% GDP by 2050, reaching 17% in agriculture und (World Bank analysis estimates climate impacts could produce losses up to 9% GDP by 2050, reaching 17% in agriculture under particular scenarios., to 2050) to support the claim that Agriculture is disproportionately exposed; keep estimate distinct from broader E465 scenario.
What it does not prove: The 17% figure is a sectoral loss within agriculture under particular scenarios, not a 17% hit to national GDP, and the 9% is an upper bound rather than a central estimate. Both are scenario outputs on a different and narrower basis than the 18-20% combined figure in E465, so adding or conflating the two double-counts.
Memory hook: 9% GDP, 17% in agriculture → the same climate shock lands twice as hard on farms
Rebuts the claim: "Climate losses will be spread evenly across the economy" — agriculture absorbs roughly double the national rate.