Thucydides Trap: rising vs ruling power cases ending in war

G-USCN-10 · gap-us-china

This card

Twelve of 16 cases in the past 500 years ended violently — Thucydides Trap: rising vs ruling power cases ending in war · Past 500 years (Belfer Center case file)Harvard Kennedy School, Belfer Center, Thucydides's Trap project · Past 500 years (Belfer Center case file)Source named — not yet verified

Source

Harvard Kennedy School, Belfer Center, Thucydides's Trap project — https://www.belfercenter.org/thucydides-trap/overview-thucydides-trap. Matched to the source page by an automated research pass on 6 Oct 2026; not yet checked by a person..

What it proves

History suggests power transitions usually end in war, though four peaceful cases show conflict is not inevitable.

thucydides trapgraham allisonpower transitiongreat power warrising powerhistorical analogy

Debates this card can serve

Will the US–China power transition be peaceful or end in conflict?#16 · asked in 7 years Does China's rise make great-power conflict with the United States inevitable?#244 · asked in 3 years