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Causal chain · Economics · Pakistan Affairs

Export integration → productivity → FX resilience

AC13 · 12 evidence cards

This chain

The chain Evidence (12)

1Export integration
2productivity
3FX resilience

Core logic: Export participation and integration can support productivity and reduce recurring FX constraints.

Evidence in this chain

Pakistan exports-to-GDP declined from historical peak ~16% to below 10% over World Bank study period.World Bank Firms about to become exporters were 26% more productive than firms that never exported in World Bank analysis.World Bank Systematic exporters were another 21% more productive than latent exporters after controls.World Bank Foreign-owned firms were about 46% more productive than comparable domestic firms in cited analysis.World Bank Share of listed Pakistani firms exporting fell ~60% to 51% over examined decade.World Bank Among exporting listed firms, exports' share of sales fell ~31% to 27%.World Bank Current-account surplus US$72m during Jul-Mar FY2026. (Jul-Mar FY2026)Pakistan Economic Survey Goods exports ~US$22.7bn during Jul-Mar FY2026. (Jul-Mar FY2026)Pakistan Economic Survey Goods imports ~US$50.7bn during Jul-Mar FY2026. (Jul-Mar FY2026)Pakistan Economic Survey Worker remittances ~US$30.3bn during Jul-Mar FY2026. (Jul-Mar FY2026)Pakistan Economic Survey Nine-month remittances were roughly one-third larger than goods exports. (Jul-Mar FY2026)Derived from PES SBP FX reserves ~US$17.1bn on 15 May 2026; commercial banks another US$5.5bn. (15 May 2026)Pakistan Economic Survey