Argument evidence · Tier 1

2022-23 availability fell to 72.7 MAF, 29.8% below average.

E452 · CSS Evidence Bank v1

This card

The card What it proves Pairs with (3)In chains (4)

2022-23 availability fell to 72.7 MAF, 29.8% below average. · 2022-23Pakistan Economic Survey · 2022-23Source named — not yet verified

Source

Pakistan Economic Survey — https://finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_26/Complete_PES2025_26.pdf. Verified in source set / retroactive normalization pending.

What it proves

Water availability varies sharply, showing hydrological volatility.

Draft — not reviewed

What it does not prove: 2022-23 was the year of catastrophic flooding, yet canal availability was the lowest in the series — the figure measures water Pakistan could capture and divert, not rainfall or river flow, so it indicts storage and timing rather than a shortage of precipitation. A 29.8% swing below average also means the annual average is a weak planning number for a system this volatile.

Memory hook: 72.7 MAF in the flood year → too much water, too little of it captured

Rebuts the claim: "The 2022 floods showed Pakistan has surplus water, only bad drainage" — the same year recorded availability nearly 30% below average system usage.

Pairs with

World Bank estimates 2022 floods pushed another 13m Pakistanis into poverty. (2022)World Bank Under a 3°C warming scenario, Pakistan's water demand could rise by more than 50% by 2047 while supply remains relativel (Projection to 2047)World Bank Agriculture accounts for about 95% of Pakistan's freshwater withdrawals; inefficient agricultural water use was estimateWorld Bank

In chains and maps

Water → agriculture → climate → food securityWater → agriculture → climate → food security Pakistan Water SecurityPopulation pressure → high withdrawals → agricultural dependence → climate variability → IWT uncertainty → food/economic/national-security risk Pakistan Food SecurityWater/climate/income shocks → agricultural instability + food prices → access/utilization problems → malnutrition → weak human capital → poverty Pakistan Development SystemPopulation + weak human capital + low investment + energy + export + fiscal + governance + climate constraints → mutually reinforcing development traps