2025-26 surface-water availability was ~11.1% below average system usage.
Source
Pakistan Economic Survey — https://finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_26/Complete_PES2025_26.pdf. Verified in source set / retroactive normalization pending.
What it proves
Water scarcity constrains agricultural reliability.
What it does not prove: An 11.1% shortfall against a long-run average is a supply deviation, not a measured crop loss — it does not tell you how much output fell, because the deficit lands unevenly across kharif and rabi and across canal commands, and tube-wells absorb part of it at the cost of aquifer depletion and diesel. A shortfall against average use is also not a shortfall against need, since the average itself embeds today's inefficient practice.
Memory hook: 11.1% below average → scarcity is the baseline condition, not the emergency
Rebuts the claim: "Water shortages only bite in crisis years" — even a year with no flood and no declared drought ran more than a tenth below normal system use.